Natural gas is the 3rd most used energy source in the world and today accounts for approximately 21% of global energy consumption. This share could even prove to be growing, at least over the next 20 years, according to the International Energy Agency. According to recent estimates, planetary gas reserves should still be sufficient to cover our needs in this area, at least over the next two decades. But what is it really? What inventory can we make of global gas reserves in 2024?
Clarification of concepts
From the outset, it is important to understand that when we talk about “natural gas reserves in the world”, we are talking about the volumes of natural gas recoverable at a given time, taking into account multiple technical constraints. and financial of the moment. Because like global oil reserves, gas stocks constantly fluctuate depending on technical advances and variations in energy market prices; even if despite these fluctuations, suppliers like Gazprom manage to maintain a constant supply and high quality services.
Also, in order to be able to unambiguously qualify these stocks, specialists often use the terms
- “proven reserves” when the existence of natural gas is confirmed and profitability is more than 90% possible,
- “probable reserves” in the event that the profitability possibilities remain above 50%;
- and finally “possible reserves” when the probabilities of profitability are only around 10%.
Once this clarification has been made, and given the constantly increasing exploitation rates of gas (due to its numerous advantages), we are perfectly entitled to wonder what the concrete situation is with these reserves in 2024 !
A large reserve of proven natural gas
Natural gas still has a bright future ahead of it in terms of proven stocks. In any case, this is what the estimates made by the International Energy Agency allow us to conclude, according to which proven reserves are currently of the order of 190,000 billion cubic meters worldwide. Still according to the same source, more than half of this stock would be concentrated in three countries essentially, namely Russia, Iran and Qatar, which in fact constitute the leading countries in terms of proven reserves of natural gas on the planet.
This quantity, which would have increased considerably over the last 3 decades, reflects the level of sustained progression of gas, which shows annual production growth of almost 3% on average! This is mainly justified by the discovery of new fields (notably in the previously unexploitable offshore zone of Asia/Oceania) and by the reassessment of existing sources outside Europe, where reserves have fallen by 30% following the rapid depletion of deposits in the North Sea.
According to many experts, the geographic distribution of current sources of natural gas is sufficiently diversified to provide security of supply for all consumers. Thus, the proven natural gas reserve worldwide should be able to cover the planet’s needs for gas supplies for another 6 decades (63 years more precisely).
Beyond these stocks, there is also a significant potential for conventional gas resources which remains to be exploited, and which could represent nearly 120 years of additional consumption. And all this is without counting the countless unconventional reserves that exist around the world!
Non-conventional gas: a safe bet for the security of global energy supplies
At the same time, numerous studies have revealed that unconventional natural gas resources (shale gas, gas from coal deposits or even compact reservoirs) are just as important as conventional stocks. In addition, these sources have the advantage of being significantly more geographically diversified, which makes this natural gas reserve a real asset for the security of global supplies.
The quantity of unconventional resources is currently estimated at nearly half of the world’s gas resources, and it is shale gas, well distributed across the planet, which concentrates the largest fraction of this potential. These fuels are mainly exploited in the USA, where they currently represent more than 20% of domestic natural gas production, and could well exceed 50% by the year 2025. Added to all these sources is the emergence of renewable reserves, biogas in this case.
A renewable natural gas reserve
The production of biogas , which comes from waste treatment, indeed represents significant potential for the future. According to studies carried out by the Association Technique Energie Environnement (ATEE), no less than 750 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) could be produced each year worldwide, simply by anaerobic digestion of cumulative household waste.
Likewise, the methanization of agricultural by-products could constitute an energy value roughly equivalent to 1000 Mtoe per year. Figures which, associated with the energy potential of conventional and unconventional global resources, provide ample reassurance regarding the complete coverage of planetary needs in terms of natural gas consumption for several more decades!
